Climate change is having profound effects on the incidence of vector borne disease. However, developing effective measures of disease risk on a global scale are challenged by the complex ways in which environmental variation acts in vector-host-pathogen systems. Current models over-simplify the interaction between vector traits and environmental variation and so risk mis-estimating disease risk. Here, we derive a mathematical model for Aedes albopictus, the vector of dengue, and demonstrate how the interaction of vector traits and population dynamics explain the location, magnitude and timing of historical dengue outbreaks. We find long lived individuals that developed under favourable conditions can persist within the population long after the environmental conditions that created them have passed and may consequently have a disproportionate effect on pathogen transmission dynamics that cannot be accounted for by approaches that omit trait dynamics.
Mathematical Epidemiology Subgroup (MEPI)
Ad hoc subgroup meeting room(reserved for subgroup activities):Interfaith Prayer and Reflection Room in The Ohio Union
MS01-MEPI-1: Climate and vector-borne disease: insights from mathematical modeling
Organized by: Michael Robert, Zhuolin Qu, Christina Cobbold Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS02-MEPI-1.
- Christina Cobbold University of Glasgow (School of Mathematics and Statistics) "Vector population dynamics and trait variation drive trends in global disease incidence"
- Morgan Jackson Virginia Commonwealth University (Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics) "Evaluating a Temperature-dependent Mosquito Population Model"
- Stacey Smith? The University of Ottawa (Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine) "Comparing malaria surveillance with periodic spraying in the presence of insecticide-resistant mosquitoes: Should we spray regularly or based on human infections?"
MS02-MEPI-1: Climate and vector-borne disease: insights from mathematical modeling
Organized by: Michael Robert, Zhuolin Qu, Christina Cobbold Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS01-MEPI-1.
- Carrie Manore Los Alamos National Laboratory (Theoretical Biology and Biophysics) "Coupling Earth Systems, Vector Population, and Disease Transmission Models to Predict Mosquito-borne Disease Under Climate Change"
- Nusrat Tabassum Texas Tech University (Applied Mathematics) "Stage-Structured Mosquito Larval Competition: Implications for Aedes Albopictus and Aedes Aegypti Population Dynamics"
- Luis Fernando Chaves Indiana University - Bloomington (Environmental and Occupational Health) "Nonlinear impacts of climatic variability on vector population dynamics"
- Suzanne Robertson Virginia Commonwealth University (Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics) "The impact of changes in avian phenology in a stage-structured model for West Nile virus transmission"
MS04-MEPI-1: Mathematical Epidemiology: Infectious disease modeling across time, space, and scale
Organized by: Lauren Childs, Michael Robert
- Rosemary Aogo National Institutes of Health (Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) "A new model framework offers insights into the role of immune boosting and waning in shaping dengue epidemic dynamics."
- Derdei M. Bichara California State University, Fullerton (Mathematics) "Effects of Heterogeneity in a Class of Bio-systems"
- Paul Hurtado University of Nevada-Reno (Mathematics & Statistics) "Finding Reproduction Numbers for ODE Models of Arbitrary Finite Dimension Using The Generalized Linear Chain Trick"
- Zhuolin Qu University of Texas at San Antonio (Department of Mathematics) "Multistage Spatial Model for Informing Release of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquitoes as Disease Control"
MS05-MEPI-1: Zoonotic Infectious Diseases Models
Organized by: Rocio Caja Rivera, Iona McCabe, Dana Pittman, Linda J. Allen
- Holly Gaff Old Dominion University (Department of Biological Sciences) "Understanding Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases through Agent-based Modeling"
- Kat Husar & Dana C. Pittman Duke University; Texas A&M University (School of Public Health Epidemiology and Biostatistics) "Lyme Disease Models of Tick-Mouse Dynamics with Seasonal Variation in Births, Deaths, and Tick Feeding"
- Katherine Royce Harvard University (Law School) "Mathematically predicting intermediate host species for emerging zoonoses"
- Iona McCabe; Kaia Smith University of California, Santa Barbara; Scripps College (Department of Mathematics; Department of Mathematics) "Stochastic Models of Zoonotic Avian Influenza with Multiple Hosts, Environmental Transmission, and Migration in the Natural Reservoir"
MS06-MEPI-1: Recent advances in parameter identifiability of mathematical models in mathematical biology
Organized by: Omar Saucedo, Bren Case, Lauren Childs Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS07-MEPI-1.
- Widodo Samyono Jarvis Christian University (Mathematics and Sciences) "Parameters Identifiability for selecting the best model using differential equations optimization"
- Marisa Eisenberg University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (Epidemiology and Complex Systems) "Identifiability and infectious disease interventions: exploring when uncertainty matters"
- All Participants "Open Forum"
MS06-MEPI-2: Disease Dynamics Across Scales
Organized by: Joshua Caleb Macdonald, Hayriye Gulbudak Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS07-MEPI-2.
- Anna Jolles Oregon State University (Carlson College of Veterinary Medicine and Department of Integrative Biology) "Mechanisms of persistence of highly transmissible foot-and-mouth viruses in their maintenance host, African buffalo (Syncerus caffer)"
- Simon Gubbins The Pirbright Institute (Transmission Biology) "Cross-scale dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus: from within hosts to between farms"
- Jan Medlock Oregon State University (Biomedical Sciences) "The Persistence of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in African Buffalo"
- Cameron Browne University of Louisiana at Lafayette (Mathematics) "Environmental adaptation and seasonality in cholera eco-evolutionary dynamics"
MS07-MEPI-1: Recent advances in parameter identifiability of mathematical models in mathematical biology
Organized by: Omar Saucedo, Bren Case, Lauren Childs Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS06-MEPI-1.
- Madeline A. E. Peters Michigan State University (Microbiology and Molecular Genetics) "Challenges in forming inferences from limited data: a case study of malaria parasite maturation"
- Bren Case University of Vermont (Computer Science) "Restricted Marginal Divergence: an efficient Bayesian measure of practical identifiability for nonlinear systems in biology and epidemiology"
- All Participants "Open Forum"
MS07-MEPI-2: Disease Dynamics Across Scales
Organized by: Joshua Caleb Macdonald, Hayriye Gulbudak Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is MS06-MEPI-2.
- Summer Atkins Louisiana State University (Department of Mathematics and Statistics) "An immuno-epidemiological model of foot-and-mouth disease in African buffalo"
- Leah LeJeune Virginia Tech (Department of Mathematics) "Cross-immunity and transmission influences in a multistrain host-pathogen cholera model"
- Alun L. Lloyd North Carolina State University (Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics) "Spatial Spread of Dengue Virus: Appropriate Spatial Scales for Transmission"
- Erin Gorsich University of Warwick (Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology) "Modelling endemic Rift Valley fever virus"
MS08-MEPI-1: Integrating Data with Epidemic Models: Challenges and Opportunities
Organized by: Bruce Pell, Fuqing Wu
- Tin Phan Los Alamos National Laboraty (Theoretical Biology and Biophysics) "Integrating wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models to track and predict viral infections and beyond"
- Matthew D. Johnston Lawrence Technological University (Department of Mathematics + Computer Science) "Integrating Virus Variant Data into a Two-Strain SIR Model with Cross-Immunity"
- Fuqing Wu The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics, and Environmental Sciences) "A Wastewater-based dynamic model for epidemiological inferrence"
- Shokoofeh Nourbakhsh Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) (National Microbiology Lab / Public Health Risk Sciences / Infectious Disease Modelling) "A Wastewater-based Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2"
Sub-group contributed talks
CT01-MEPI-1: MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
- Christopher Mitchell Tarleton State University "Using Bayesian Methods to Infer Parameters for ODE Epidemic Systems"
- Rodolfo Blanco-Rodriguez University of Idaho "Modeling the impact of contact network and viral evolution on lockdown and vaccination strategies"
- Soyoung Kim National Institute for Mathematical Sciences "Optimal antiviral stockpile for influenza pandemic"
- Zitao He University of Waterloo "Predicting measles outbreaks from vaccine sentiments on social media"
CT02-MEPI-1: MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
- Kiel Corkran University of Missouri- Kansas City "An Agent-Based modeling approach to Investigate Pandemic Preparedness of Nursing Homes"
- Sansao Pedro Eduardo Mondlane University "An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Spread of COVID-19 in Mozambique: Pandemic Planing Implications of Population Mobility Patterns"
- Theresa Sheets University of Utah "Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 Hospitalizations in Utah with Multiple Public Health Metrics"
CT02-MEPI-2: MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
- Chunyi Gai The University of British Columbia "Localized outbreaks in S-I-R model with diffusion"
- Keoni Castellano University of Nevada, Las Vegas "Dynamics of classical solutions of a multi-strain diffusive epidemic model"
- Laura F. Strube Virginia Tech "Appearance of Multistability and Hydra Effect in a Discrete-Time Epidemic Model with Ricker Growth"
- Neda Jalali University of Notre Dame "Impact of the interaction among DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV on disease dynamics"
CT03-MEPI-1: MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
- Alexander Dolnick Meyer University of Notre Dame "Risk and size of Aedes-borne disease outbreaks are poorly predicted by climate-based suitability indices"
- Arash Arjmand University of Missouri Kansas City "Incorporating Biosecurity Adherence into a Modeling Framework to Analyze Dynamics of Antimicrobial Resistance in Cattle Farms"
- Aurod Ounsinegad Tarleton State University "Dynamics of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Infection Rates: A Mathematical Approach"
- Cormac LaPrete University of Utah "Characterizing spatiotemporal variation in transmission heterogeneity during the 2022 Mpox outbreak in the USA"
Sub-group poster presentations
Bruce Edward Pell
Lawrence Technological University
Poster ID: MEPI-02 (Session: PS01)
"From Waste to Wisdom: Utilizing Wastewater Data and Virus Variant Modeling for Improving Epidemic Forecasting"
Moulay Ismail University of Meknes, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Meknes, Morocco.
Poster ID: MEPI-03 (Session: PS01)
"Optimal Strategy for Lockdown and Deconfinement of Covid-19 Crisis"
International University of Grand Bassam
Poster ID: MEPI-10 (Session: PS01)
"Stable Estimation of Time Dependent Transmission rate: A retrospective look at the Covid 19 Epidemic in Ivory Coast West Africa."
Indunil M. Hewage
Washington State University
Poster ID: MEPI-03 (Session: PS02)
"Exploring the bifurcations in a COVID-19 epidemiological model – the failure of the quadratic equation analysis"
Mohammad Mihrab Uddin Chowdhury
Texas Tech University
Poster ID: MEPI-07 (Session: PS02)
"Investigating the intricate transmission dynamics of Batrachochytrium Salamandrivorans in salamander populations of North America"
University of Science and Technology / Korea Institute of Science and Technology / Korea Disease Control Agency, /AI-Information-Reasoning Laboratory
Poster ID: MEPI-09 (Session: PS02)
"How to incorporate mutation-induced infection waves of COVID-19?"