in The Ohio Union

Optimal Strategy for Lockdown and Deconfinement of Covid-19 Crisis

Monday, July 17 at 6:00pm

SMB2023 SMB2023 Follow Monday during the "PS01" time block.
Room assignment: in The Ohio Union.
Share this

Chakib Jerry

Moulay Ismail University of Meknes, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Meknes, Morocco.
"Optimal Strategy for Lockdown and Deconfinement of Covid-19 Crisis"
Most integrated models of the Covid pandemic have been developed under the assumption that the policy-sensitive reproduction number is certain. The decision to exit from the lockdown has been made in most countries without knowing the reproduction number that would prevail after the deconfinement. In this paper, I explore the role of uncertainty and learning on the optimal dynamic lockdown policy. I limit the analysis to suppression strategies. In the absence of uncertainty, the optimal confinement policy is to impose a constant rate of lockdown until the suppression of the virus in the population. I show that introducing uncertainty about the reproduction number of deconfined people reduces the optimal initial rate of confinement.

#SMB2023 Follow
Annual Meeting for the Society for Mathematical Biology, 2023.