Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea

Sunhwa Choi

National Institute for Mathematical Sciences

"Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea"

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on both overall mortality and COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Estimating excess mortality during the pandemic is a key measure for assessing its direct and indirect effects on public health. To understand the scope of excess mortality during the pandemic in South Korea, we used monthly death and mean temperature data for each region from January 2010 to December 2019 to develop linear models and estimate expected deaths without the pandemic. Our analysis revealed significant regional variation in excess mortality, with some areas experiencing higher rates of excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and public health measures to address the indirect effects of the pandemic on mortality, particularly in areas with higher excess mortality. By understanding the patterns of excess mortality and the factors that contribute to regional variation, we can develop more effective strategies to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and protect vulnerable populations.
Additional authors: Soyoung Kim; Innovation Center for Industrial Mathematics, National Institute for Mathematical Sciences

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