"Stochastic modeling study of Ebolavirus disease outbreak: How risky if we notice it late?"
On September 20th, 2022, Uganda declared an outbreak of Ebolavirus disease (EVD) a day after confirming the index case in Mubende district in the central part of the country. After investigation, it was found that the index case was hospitalized on September 11th and there were 6 deaths before confirmation of the index case. In this talk, we introduce a stochastic modeling study of EVD outbreak and discuss the risk of delay. Motivated by the 2022 Uganda EVD outbreak, our model contains unreported cases and healthcare workers. We simulated the model using the modified Gillespie algorithm to reflect delayed events. From our scenario-based study, we found that depending on the delay in noticing the EVD outbreak, the maximum number of administered patients can range from 8 to 70 when noticing delay ranges from 0 to 50 days. Additionally, the outbreak duration can range from 64 to 133 days. We expect that our simulation study can provide guidance to healthcare authorities in areas where natural EVD reservoirs are suspected to exist.
Additional authors: Eunok Jung