Modeling the challenges of optimal resource deployment for epidemic prevention

Jonathan Forde

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

"Modeling the challenges of optimal resource deployment for epidemic prevention"

During emergent outbreaks of viral infections, public health policy decisions are made on the basis of incomplete information in a changing landscape of scientific knowledge and budgetary and infrastructure constraints. Accounting for the trade-offs necessitated by the resource limitation is essential when formulating an optimal policy response. In this work, we pose optimal control problems to explore the implications of several such trade-off, focusing on testing vs. vaccination and long-term vs. short-term public health objectives. We also explore the how these optimal controls are influenced by the efficacy of the interventions and the frequency with which policy changes can be made.

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