Optimal control of dengue with existing and forthcoming interventions

Alex Perkins

University of Notre Dame

"Optimal control of dengue with existing and forthcoming interventions"

Progress towards controlling dengue has proven to be difficult, with clear examples of successful control being few and far between and typically not sustained over time. At the same time, evidence from trials indicates that a range of interventions should be capable of reducing transmission. This contradiction raises the possibility that there is scope to improve how interventions are used. We addressed this possibility using a mathematical model of seasonally varying dengue virus transmission in nearly 2,000 cities. The model was informed principally by Aedes aegypti occurrence maps, temperature and its effects on mosquito and virus traits, and spatial estimates of dengue virus force of infection. We applied optimal control theory to models for each city, resulting in estimates of the frequency with which each of several interventions should be deployed if cost-effectiveness is to be maximized. While our results indicate that some combinations of interventions may be more cost-effective than others, especially in some settings, there are challenges that all interventions face. Namely, limits to intervention coverage impair effectiveness, and increased intervention effort is required over time to counterbalance the effect of rising susceptibility, particularly for more effective interventions. We also found that cities with more seasonally marginal levels of transmission and higher costs incurred by dengue morbidity and mortality have greater scope to engage in cost-effective control programs. Our results offer a novel piece of information that decision makers could use to inform rational choices about efforts to control dengue within their communities.
Additional authors: Hannah Clapham, National University of Singapore; Oliver Brady, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

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